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Nathan Tinkler is the last of the Independents: Aston Resources
After Felix Resources was swallowed up last year by China’s Yanzhou Coal, most other local producers have at least flirted with foreign suitors. The corporate interest provides an ideal tailwind for the coming float of Nathan Tinkler’s Aston Resources
Tinkler has built a small fortune as a horseracing and coalmining
entrepreneur. He entered the limelight following the top-of-the-market
sale of his $440 million stake in Macarthur Coal in mid-2008.
Tinkler reaffirmed his interest in the sector in late 2009, purchasing
the Maules Creek deposit from Rio Tinto for $480m. Less than a year
later, the asset is underpinning the float of Aston Resources. However,
as it is now valued more than twice as high and carrying debts of $286m,
should new investors embrace Tinkler’s latest deal? There’s no denying
that Maules Creek is a world-class resource. With 610 million tonnes of
thermal and coking coal resources, the project has a potential life of
more than 30 years. Production could commence by 2012, and the company’s
average targeted output of 10.8 million tonnes a year would rank Maules
Creek as one of the largest coalmines in Australia.
In order to reach production status, capital expenditures have been
estimated at $463m. As most of Aston’s float proceeds are flagged for
debt reduction, additional fund raisings will be needed. The pedigrees
of cornerstone shareholders such as Itochu and Noble Group reduce
Aston’s financing challenges, leaving infrastructure as the primary risk
facing new investors. Maules Creek is well located in NSW’s Gunnedah
Basin, 16km from the nearest rail line. However, securing enough
shipping capacity at the Port of Newcastle to meet its production goals
may prove challenging. The company’s first port allocation is due by the
end of 2010, and as bulk commodities are a game of infrastructure, we
expect the decision to play an important role in Aston’s early share
performance.
Source: The Australian
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