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Chinas nickel demand growth in the production of stainless steel Slow Cools
Nickel demand growth in China, the world’s biggest consumer, will slow this year as stainless steel production cools and as competition persists from lower-cost alternatives, said Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.
Consumption of the metal used to boost corrosion resistance may increase
by as much as 4.5 percent to 460,000 metric tons from 440,000 tons in
2009, Xu Aidong, senior nickel analyst at Antaike, said in an interview
today. Demand jumped 33 percent last year from 330,000 tons in 2008, Xu
said.
Nickel for three-month delivery has dropped 22 percent from a 23-month
high in April as supply increased and on concern that the global
economic recovery is faltering. China’s industrial production increased
at the slowest pace in 11 months in July as government lending curbs
restrained the economy.
“It’s hard to see nickel demand continuing to grow as fast as before in
the next few years,” Xu said. “After all, China is already the biggest
stainless steel maker and part of that capacity is idled now.”
China will probably produce almost 11 million tons of stainless steel
this year, 13 percent more than 9.7 million tons in 2009, and compared
with a capacity of 12 million to 15 million tons, according to Antaike
estimates.
Xu’s prediction is lower than from some other analysts and industry
executives. Demand may increase 18.6 percent to 510,000 tons, according
to Toru Higo, general manager of the nickel sales and raw material
department at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., on July 13. Consumption may be
545,000 tons, said Jim Lin, a consultant in Beijing with research firm
CRU International Ltd.
Slowing Economy
Industrial production growth in China slowed to 13.4 percent in July,
while new lending, producer prices and money supply also increased at a
weaker pace, according to reports last week. Growth in urban fixed-asset
investment cooled, rising 24.9 percent in the first seven months from a
year earlier. That compared with a 25.5 percent first-half gain.
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the country’s second-biggest stainless
steelmaker, said in May the company was “not very optimistic” that
consumption growth for stainless steel in China would match last year’s
rate.
Apparent growth may be 5 percent because of a slowdown in China’s
property market and the European economy, Lou Dingbo, general manager of
Baoshan’s stainless unit, said then, without providing an exact figure
for 2009. The company may increase use of nickel pig iron because it’s
more competitive, he said.
“Stainless steel demand in China is just so-so now,” said CRU’s Lin.
“Even the big mills have chosen nickel pig iron to control costs because
downstream demand is sluggish.”
Nickel pig iron is more attractive when the refined price exceeds
$20,000 a ton, he said. Metal for three-month delivery on the London
Metal Exchange traded at $21,551 a ton today. Cash metal in Changjiang,
Shanghai’s biggest physical metals market, was quoted around 165,500
yuan ($24,331) a ton.
Source: Bloomberg
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