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Wheat surges sink and food grain stocks on Russia ban
Wheat prices surged to a two-year high while shares in European brewers and food producers fell on Friday as markets reacted to the sudden imposition of a ban on grain exports from drought-hit Russia
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin moved decisively on Thursday to
halt exports of grain and flour from August 15 to the end of the year
and the country’s railroad monopoly said on Friday it will stop loading
grain for export from Saturday.
The speed of the move shocked Russia’s Grain Union, the country’s main
industry lobby, which pleaded with the government on Friday to delay the
ban until September 1.
Russia had been the world’s third largest wheat exporter last year but
is set to slide down the table this season with the worst drought in
more than 100 years devastating crops.
“Effectively, a big chunk of the global market is off-line — there’s
going to be something like 5 million tonnes that aren’t going to be
available for export,” said Matthew Kaleel, a commodities specialist at
fund manager H3 Global in Sydney.
Shares in Danish brewer Carlsberg, which faces a sharp rise in input
costs, lost 4.5 percent, while food companies such as Nestle and Danone
also saw their shares decline in value.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to a peak of $8.41 a
bushel, the highest level in about two years with prices nearly doubling
since early June.
The rise has revived memories of the surge in price s in early 2008,
when U.S. wheat rose above $13 a bushel, which helped to fuel food
inflation and led to rioting in many countries across the world.
Analysts, however, downplayed the link, adding that world stocks have
grown steeply during the last couple of years which saw the two biggest
wheat crops in history.
“Stocks are close to 50 percent higher today (than they were during the
last price spike in early 2008). You had a completely different scenario
then,” said Barclays Capital analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan.
Persistent high prices could, however, drive fear o f food inflation in
key buyers such as Indonesia and the Philippines, analysts said.
“If prices remain elevated for a sustained period, then the probability
of upward adjustment in retail price of wheat and its derivatives goes
up,” Barclays Capital said in a report.
“However, food prices tend to be politically sensitive, so we can expect some action from Asian governments.”
Top consumers China and India are largely insulated from rising prices by sufficient wheat reserves.
FORCE MAJEURE?
Trading companies that have sold Russian wheat to millers in Asia are
considering declaring force majeure on supply contracts that could
involve up to 1 million tonnes of wheat.
“If the contract says Russian wheat, it is straight away force majeure,”
said one trader with an international trading company in Singapore,
referring to terms in commodity deals that remove liability for
unforeseen events which hinder trade.
“We haven’t heard but it will happen, even my company will do it.”
Two suppliers scrapped deals to ship 65,000 tonnes of Black Sea wheat to
Bangladesh, while in the Philippines a leading importer of feed wheat
from the Black Sea, buyers were waiting to hear from suppliers.
“Those with supply contracts are a bit nervous, even the buyer,” said a grains trader in Manila.
“The contracts are written with optional origins but it means the
sellers will also have to pay through their noses and those noses will
bleed really bad.”
Source: Reuters
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