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Oil rally above $ 80 may be of short duration
Oil is unlikely to rise much above $80 a barrel over the next 18 months, because recent rallies have been driven by broad financial market sentiment, not by oil fundamentals, the manager of a London-based oil fund said
Angelos Damaskos, manager of Junior Oils Trust, a 35 million pound
($55.9 million) fund investing in small oil companies, said oil’s rally
in recent days was driven by optimism over global economic recovery,
which could easily be reversed. U.S. crude oil jumped to a three-month
high above $82 on Tuesday, supported by a rally in global equities and a
falling U.S. dollar .DXY. A weaker greenback boosts the purchasing
power for oil by developing nations where demand is surging.
“This is probably short-term … The current moves up and down are
related to the sentiment of investors in the market about the future
prospects for the global economy and not really the underlying demand
for physical oil,” Damaskos said on Wednesday.
“There could easily be an event or economic indicator around the corner
that could be significantly negative and turn the sentiment of
investors, and they will sell the market again.”
Strong earnings from top banks supported a rally across financial and
commodity markets over the past week, even as data from the U.S. and
China, the world’s top two energy consumers, pointed to a slowdown in
economic growth.
DEMAND SUBDUED
Before this week, oil had not been above $80 since May, when prices
reached heights not seen since 2008, the year oil climbed to an all-time
peak of $147.27 before collapsing to below $33.
Damaskos said his fund, part of the Sector Investment Managers group,
was not betting on another spike in oil prices in the short term,
because global energy demand was still too fragile.
“2010 and 2011 are going to be years of subdued economic growth, and
demand from the developed economies will continue to be weak. Our view
therefore is that oil will trade in a range between $65-$85 for the next
year and a half,” said the fund manager, who is also chief executive of
the group.
Beyond the next two years, Damaskos said, a simultaneous rise in global
energy demand and tightening of crude supplies will send oil prices
above current levels for the long term.
Delays to offshore oil projects following April’s disastrous explosion
on a BP-owned oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico will be one of the factors
behind that supply tightening, he said.
The accident, which killed 11 workers, led to an oil leak that BP is
still struggling to plug and prompted companies to put a number of deep
offshore oil projects on hold. Increased regulation on future plans are
also likely to drive up costs.
“There is already a significant impact on projects in the last three months, and this will continue,” said Damaskos.
“Next year we may start to feel the impact of these project delays on
supply, especially when the world economy returns to growth. It will be a
significant factor for prices.”
Junior Oils Trust has returned 9.6 percent since the beginning of 2010.
One of the fund’s top performers this year was British oil and gas
explorer Dana Petroleum.
Source: Reuters
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