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Oil futures contango collapses, Cushing stocks waves: Energy Market
Record oil stockpiles in the U.S. Midwest are reducing the premium traders will pay for later deliveries amid signs that fuel demand may be ebbing as the pace of the economic recovery slows.
Inventories in the 15-state region that includes Illinois rose to 97.7
million barrels in the week ended July 30, the highest level recorded
since the data started in 1990, according to an Energy Department report
yesterday. Supplies in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New
York futures contracts, were less than 1 percent below the all-time high
set in May, the report showed.
As Cushing stocks have increased, the premium on the October crude
contract relative to that for September, the nearest contract to
delivery, has narrowed 78 percent from a year ago. While crude has risen
28 percent since its low in May, U.S. demand will average 18.9 million
barrels a day in 2010, down 9 percent from the all-time high in 2005,
according to Energy Department forecasts.
“This is just another in a long list of bearish fundamentals in the oil
market,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in
Chicago.
Crude oil for September delivery dropped 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to
settle at $82.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today.
October oil slipped 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $82.45. September
futures are 44 cents less than October contracts, down from $1.96 a
barrel for the corresponding two contracts exactly a year ago.
A market in which contracts are more expensive for later delivery than
earlier shipments is described as being in contango. The reverse is
known as backwardation.
Spending, Unemployment
U.S. fuel demand is slowing at a time when consumption typically
increases as more Americans take to the roads for their holidays, adding
to evidence the nation’s recovery from its deepest recession since the
Great Depression will be delayed.
Data from the Commerce Department yesterday showed consumer spending and
personal income were unchanged in June, further evidence the weak jobs
recovery is hurting spending. The jobless rate is expected to rise to
9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July, according to the median estimate
of 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Cushing stockpiles climbed 1.8 percent to 37.8 million barrels last
week, the fourth straight gain, according to the Energy Department.
Supplies surged to 37.9 million barrels in the week ended May 14, the
highest since the government started reporting on supplies at the
storage hub in April 2004.
“The big builds in Cushing are a signal that demand is very weak versus
supply,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst at the Schork Group in Villanova,
Pennsylvania. “This will keep a lid on prices because once Cushing fills
up, barrels will be thrown on the open market. There will be a fire
sale in crude oil.”
Canada Shipments
Storage facilities in the Midwest are filling up as shipments from
Canada have surged in the past decade, making the country the biggest
source of U.S. energy imports. Crude oil and fuel arrivals from the
nation’s northern neighbor have jumped 61 percent in the 10 years to an
average 2.48 million barrels a day in 2009.
“This highlights the growing volumes arriving from Canada,” said Rick
Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in
Wakefield, Massachusetts. “Until they expand connections to bring
Canadian oil to the Gulf Coast, the middle of the country will remain
very well supplied.”
Source: Bloomberg
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