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No gain on rain for Indonesia coal as China Demand Cools: Energy Markets
The heaviest rainfall in seven years in Indonesia, the world’s second-biggest coal exporter, is failing to stoke price gains as Chinese demand cools. The price of coal leaving the port of Newcastle in Australia, the benchmark gauge
for Asia, has dropped 1.3 percent this year, according to IHS
McCloskey, a Petersfield, U.K.-based provider of coal data. Last year,
it rose 8.5 percent.
Indonesian coal mining companies said they may struggle to meet annual
targets as the Jakarta-based Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics
Agency forecasts 11.8 inches (300 millimeters) of rain may fall this
month in Kalimantan, the largest producing region. That hasn’t helped
prices as China’s imports may slide 27 percent to the lowest level in
more than a year in the second half, a Bloomberg News survey showed Aug.
3.
“China’s thermal imports have actually declined in recent months, as its
domestic production has lifted,” said Tom Price, a commodity analyst at
UBS AG in Sydney. “A stable seaborne price suggests that this bearish
event is being almost perfectly offset by the decline in supply from
Indonesia.”
Coal more than doubled to a record high of $192.50 a metric ton in the
first seven months of 2008 partly as flooding in Australia’s Queensland
state curbed supplies. China’s coal imports in 2007 were 53 percent
higher than those in 2005, while exports dropped 13 percent, according
to customs data.
Newcastle prices dropped 1 percent to $95.20 a ton in the seven days
ended July 30, compared with $96.45 in the first week in January, IHS
McCloskey data showed. Coal hasn’t fluctuated more than $15 a ton this
year, compared with $26 in 2009, $117 in 2008 and $41 in 2007.
China Cutback
China’s coal purchases are falling as Premier Wen Jiabao implements
measures to cut pollution from power plants that run on fossil fuels
while putting curbs on bank lending to prevent economic growth from
fanning inflation.
Imports may drop to 59.5 million tons, or 9.9 million tons a month, from
81 million tons in the first six months of the year, according to
Bloomberg’s survey of four analysts and industry officials. The monthly
forecast would be the smallest level of imports since May last year.
PT Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s second-largest coal producer, said on Aug. 2
it may fail to reach its annual production target of 45 million tons if
the “unprecedented” rainfall continues.
PT Bayan Resources, controlled by billionaire Low Tuck Kwong, said July
27 that its PT Wahana Baratama Mining unit had notified customers it
will miss shipments. PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest producer,
will maintain supplies after starting the year with “a strategic opening
inventory” of more than 5 million tons, Dileep Srivastava, a company
director, said yesterday.
Mining Flexibility
Bumi expects to achieve its 2010 output target of 67 million tons, even
though rain in Kalimantan has been “unusually heavy,” by using the
flexibility afforded by having multiple mines, Srivastava said. If the
wet weather abates from September onwards, production levels may
increase, he said.
Any shortage of coal from Indonesia can be offset by supplies from
Australia, the world’s biggest exporter of the fuel, according to Mark
Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia and New Zealand Banking
Group Ltd. in Melbourne.
Port Waratah Coal Services, operator of two terminals at Newcastle,
shipped 55.5 million tons in the seven months ended July 31, according
to data on its website. The terminals can handle 113 million tons a
year. Capacity is being increased to about 163 million by the end of
2011.
“For Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan, Newcastle would probably be the
most logical option to cover cargoes,” Pervan said. “We are currently in
a seasonal lull in terms of coal demand, so the net impact may not be
as apparent as it would be during peak demand period.”
Coal shipped from Newcastle, the world’s largest export harbor for the
power-station fuel, declined 5.7 percent to 2.1 million tons in the
seven days to Aug. 2 compared with the previous week, according to
Newcastle Port Corp. Eleven vessels were outside the harbor, down from
12 a week earlier. Sixty-one vessels were traveling to the port to load
coal.
Source: Bloomberg
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