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Fuel and oil supplies to Singapore May as profits drop Tumble: Energy Markets
Fuel oil shipments to Singapore from Europe and the Americas may fall as much as 20 percent in August after the profits for such cargoes slumped 26 percent in July.
An estimated 3.2 million metric tons of the refining residue, used to
generate electricity and power ships, are likely to arrive in Singapore
this month, according to a Bloomberg News survey of seven traders in
Singapore and Tokyo. That would be a three-month low, dropping from
about 4 million tons in July.
“Supplies from Russia and the U.S.
have not been fixed much for August delivery,” said Yasuhito Imaizumi, a
Singapore- based manager at Petro Summit Pte, a unit of Sumitomo Corp.,
Japan’s third-largest trader. “This was caused by narrowing profit for
arbitrage shipments.”
Profits for shipping from the West to
Singapore, Asia’s biggest oil-trading and storage center, dropped in
July, curbing the flow of cargoes. The average arbitrage profit, derived
from the difference between fuel oil prices in Singapore and Europe
with shipping cost, fell to $17.92 a ton in the second half of July from
$24.27 a ton in the first half of the month, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg.
Only one Very Large Crude Carrier was confirmed to
sail in August to Singapore from Rotterdam, part of Europe’s independent
storage hub with Amsterdam and Antwerp, based on a Bloomberg News
survey of four shipbrokers. Three similar supertankers were fixed last
month.
Vitol Group hired the Maersk Nautica to load 270,000 tons
today, said Clarkson Asia, a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. The
Albutain Star and Arion were separately placed on provisional charter.
Crack
Spread
The discount of 180-centistoke high-sulfur fuel oil in
Singapore to Dubai crude, the Asian benchmark, may be supported by
reduced imports, according to the traders surveyed by Bloomberg. This
crack spread measures losses for every barrel of residue produced when
refiners make higher value products such as gasoline and diesel.
“The
crack spread is becoming less sensitive to the status of supply-demand
balance,” said Imaizumi at Petro Summit. “It is becoming more vulnerable
to the price of crude oil.”
High oil prices typically encourage
increased output from the Middle East, where crude is heavier and yields
more fuel oil. New York oil futures reached a three-month of $82.97 a
barrel on Aug. 4 before dropping 6.5 percent to trade at $77.60 at 2:04
p.m. in Singapore. They are still 21 percent higher than the year’s low
on May 20.
Fuel oil’s discount to Dubai hit a record $30.46 a barrel
in June 2008, a month before crude reached an all-time high above $147,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The spread narrowed from $5.53
on June 30 to $2.94 on July 19 amid speculation imports will fall in
August, said the traders. The discount was $3.74 yesterday.
Viscosity
Spread
Some August imports from Europe and South America will be of
high-viscosity fuel oil of up to 700-centistoke, said the traders. The
premium of 180-centistoke to 380-centistoke grade, known as the
viscosity spread, rose to a 19-week high on Aug. 2.
“Increased
high-viscosity cargoes, coupled with a shortage of blending stocks, may
continue to support the viscosity spread in August,” said Akira
Kamiyama, a Tokyo-based trader at Mitsui & Co., Japan’s
second-biggest trading house.
Centistoke ratings measure viscosity
when fuel oil is heated. Higher centistoke grades have a slower flow
rate and require blending with lighter fuels for use in ship engines and
power stations.
The drop in arbitrage activity also damped profits
for shipowners such as AP Moller Maersk Group. Vitol’s charter for the
Maersk Nautica was at $3.25 million, according to Clarkson. Supertanker
rates for this route were about $4.25 million in July and as much as $5
million in June.
Fuel oil inventories at Rotterdam rebounded last
week to 610,000 tons, consultant PJK International BV said. Onshore
stockpiles of residual fuels in Singapore have fallen to a seven-week
low of 20.63 million barrels, or 3.2 million tons, based on government
data.
Source: Bloomberg
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