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Crude falls below $ 77 after U.S. supplies increase, Economic Outlook Dims
Aug 12, 2010 – Crude oil tumbled to a one-month low after applications for unemployment benefits rose, bolstering concern that slowing U.S. economic growth will curb fuel demand.
Oil decreased the most in six weeks as initial jobless claims rose by
2,000 to 484,000 last week, the highest level since February. Yesterday,
a government report showed that U.S. gasoline supplies climbed for a
seventh week and stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes
heating oil and diesel, advanced to the highest level since January
1983.
“The weekly jobless numbers were disastrous and sent the market
lower,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in
Chicago. “The oil market is facing the reality, which is that supplies
exceed demand. The only thing that was supporting prices was a false
sense of economic security.”
Crude oil for September delivery dropped
$2.28, or 2.9 percent, to $75.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, the lowest settlement since July 12. It was the biggest
decline since July 1. Futures are up 8 percent from a year ago.
Brent
crude oil for September settlement fell $2.12, or 2.7 percent, to end
the session at $75.52 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe
Exchange. It was the lowest close since July 21.
Oil in New York
touched $82.97 on Aug. 4, the highest intraday price since May 4.
Futures reached $87.15 on May 3, the highest level since Oct. 9, 2008.
“There
was big push into the mid-$80s last week and we failed to take out the
early-May highs,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork
Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “The market has been under
pressure ever since the failure. There will be a lot of support in the
mid-$70s.”
Technical Indicator
New York oil settled below its
200-day moving average for the first time since July 28, a technical
indicator that prices will extend declines.
Oil has support at
$71.09, its intraday low on July 6, said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief
technical analyst at Citi FX, part of Citigroup Capital Markets in New
York.
Economists forecast jobless claims would decline to 465,000,
according to the median of 42 projections in a Bloomberg News survey.
The government revised the prior week’s figure to 482,000 from a
previously reported 479,000.
The Federal Reserve on Aug. 10 held its
benchmark interest rate at a record low and announced it will reinvest
principal payments on mortgage holdings into long-term Treasury
securities in an effort to bolster economic growth.
Fuel Stockpiles
U.S.
gasoline supplies rose 409,000 barrels to 223.4 million, according to
an Energy Department report yesterday. The gain left stockpiles 8.6
percent higher than the five-year average for the week. Inventories of
distillate fuel climbed 3.46 million barrels to 173.1 million, 27
percent higher than the average.
Crude oil supplies declined 2.99
million barrels to 355 million in the week ended Aug. 6, the report
showed. Stockpiles were 8.1 percent higher than the five-year average.
“Inventories
are weighing on the oil market because of the increasingly grim
economic outlook,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy
& Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “We’re also going
into a shoulder season when demand would drop anyway.”
U.S. gasoline
consumption peaks during the summer, when Americans take vacations. The
driving season lasts from the Memorial Day weekend in late May to the
Labor Day holiday in early September. Refineries often shut units for
maintenance in September and October as gasoline demand falls and before
heating-oil use increases.
Fall Maintenance
“Demand peaks right
now, and will soon drop,” Schork said. “There’s a seasonal decline in
fuel use beginning in September and crude oil demand also drops as
refineries go into fall turnarounds.”
The Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries will reduce shipments this month as refineries close
for maintenance, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. OPEC will
ship 23.25 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 28, down 1.8
percent from the month ended July 31, the Halifax, England-based
consultant said today. The data exclude Ecuador and Angola.
“There is
a developing argument that Eastern demand isn’t particularly strong,”
Roy Mason, Oil Movements founder, said today by phone from Halifax.
“This is refiner demand, so the implication is that refiners feel they
have got enough.”
Oil volume on the Nymex was 807,793 contracts as of
3:13 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 809,661 contracts yesterday, the
highest level since June 11 and 23 percent above the average of the past
three months. Open interest was 1.28 million contracts, the highest
level since June 17.
Source: Bloomberg
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