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Wheat prices slip on profit-taking
US wheat futures fell 4.3 per cent today, extending their losses to nearly 12 per cent in two sessions as traders took profits from a near-doubling in prices in just over a month.
With a key US Department of Agriculture stocks and production report out
later this week, and the impact of a Russian decision last week to ban
exports still to be felt, the market looks set for another volatile
week.
“Obviously the market is very unsure as to where it needs to be
trading,” market analyst for Melbourne-based Callum Downs Commodity News
Malcolm Bartholomaeus said.
Chicago Board of Trade wheat for September delivery dropped 4.34 per
cent to $US6.94-? per bushel, adding to a 7.6 per cent fall on Friday.
The December contract dropped 4.01 per cent to $US7.25.
December wheat jumped to $US8.68 on Friday, the highest price since
August 2008, after Russia suspended grain shipments on Thursday due to
its worst drought in over a century.
However, the front month remained below a record $US13.34-? per bushel
set on February 27, 2008, when fears of a global food crisis roiled the
markets, and pulled back sharply later in the session on Friday.
Today’s loss makes the two-day percentage fall the sharpest since March 2008.
Heavy world wheat stocks continue to provide a counterbalance to worries about lower crops in the Black Sea region.
Projections by the US Department of Agriculture for 2010-11 world wheat
end stocks, at 187 million tonnes, remain one-third higher than in
2007-08, with fresh estimates due on Thursday.
“Fundamentals don’t necessarily support the strength of the rally to
date. Although pricing is not a lot different to what we were seeing in
July and August in 2007, the fundamentals in 2007 were a lot tighter
than they are now,” Mr Bartholomaeus said.
He said the Friday December high of $US8.68 could represent a ceiling on prices if there were no more weather shocks.
Higher global production
Rabobank is forecasting an overall fall in global wheat production in
2010-11 to 644.2 million tonnes, from 679.8 million tonnes a year
earlier.
Crops in Ukraine and Kazakhstan have also been severely hit by drought,
while major exporter Canada was forced to cut back acres because of
excessive rain at planting time.
Attention is now turning to other major exporters, including Australia,
the world’s fourth-largest exporter, where the 2010-11 crop is estimated
at around 22 million tonnes, up from 21.7 million tonnes in 2009-10.
Estimates for the Australian crop remain vulnerable to downgrades
because of dry weather in Western Australia, which exports 40 per cent
of Australia’s wheat.
Tom Puddy, head of grain trading at Western Australian grain firm CBH
Group, said the state could struggle to harvest six million tonnes, down
from 8.2 million tonnes in 2009-10, unless sufficient rain was received
in the near term.
“Everyone is now looking at the Australian crop and our crop in Western Australia is really struggling,” Mr Puddy said.
CBOT corn for September delivery fell 0.06 per cent to $US4.04-? as
promising crop weather in the US Midwest boosts chances of a bumper 2010
crop.
The harvest month December contract fell 0.18 per cent to $US4.19-1/4.
Soybeans for August delivery rose 0.64 per cent to $US10.65-? ahead of
Friday’s expiry, while the September contract rose 0.96 per cent to
$US10.49 per bushel, helped by strong export demand.
Source: Reuters
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