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U.S. Container Imports Retailer may have reached its peak
This year’s peak season for containerized imports may have topped out in July as retailers shipped early to avoid delays, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates
“The traditional peak season may be melting away,” said Ben Hackett,
founder of Hackett Associates, which produces the Port Tracker for the
NRF.
The report said double-digit increases in June and July apparently were
swollen by backlogs that developed earlier this year when carriers moved
slowly to reactivate ships they idled during the recession.
“With many retailers appearing to bring merchandise in early to avoid
any further bottlenecks, July is likely to be the peak shipping month
for 2010 rather than the traditional rush of holiday season merchandise
in October,” the report said.
The closely watched report on shipping activity now projects import
cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports will total
14.5 million containers for 2010, a 15 percent increase over last year’s
recession-lowered numbers.
Through June, volume was estimated at 6.9 million 20-foot-equivalent
units, up 17 percent from a year earlier. The growth rate is expected to
slow later this year
July is expected to be the high-water mark for imports, with volume
estimated at 1.38 million TEUs, a 25 percent increase from last year.
The ports handled 1.32 million TEUs in May, the latest month for which
actual numbers are available. That was up 4 percent from May and 30
percent from June 2009. It was the seventh month in a row to show a
year-over-year improvement after December broke a 28-month streak of
year-over-year declines.
August volume is forecast at 1.32 million TEUs, up 14 percent from last
year; September at 1.32 million TEUs, up 16 percent; October at 1.31
million TEUs, up 10 percent; November at 1.19 million TEUs, up 9
percent; and December at 1.12 million TEUs, up 2 percent.
The 14.5 million TEUs forecast for 2010 would be up from 12.7 million
TEUs in 2009, the lowest total since 2003. The 2010 number would remain
below the 15.2 million TEUs recorded in 2008.
“We aren’t back to where we were two years ago and consumers aren’t
convinced that the recession is over quite yet, but 2010 is clearly
going to finish better than last year,” said Jonathan Gold, the
federation’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
“In the meantime, retailers are monitoring demand very closely and
hoping to see increases in employment and other areas that will boost
consumer confidence,” Gold said. “Cargo numbers this summer are showing
unusually high percentage increases, but that appears to be an
indication of shortages in shipping capacity earlier in the year rather
than sales expectations.”
Global Port Tracker covers the U.S. ports of Long Angeles-Long Beach,
Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York-New Jersey,
Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on
the Gulf Coast.
Source: Journal of Commerce
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