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Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2010 - New Market Report published
Egyptian ports, which felt the impact of the global recession last year, were seeing the first signs of recovery trickling through. In May, the Egyptian authorities reported an 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) surge in the Suez Canal’s revenues to US$374.9mn in April 2010.
The canal’s revenue stood at US$379.4mn in March 2010. The canal
recorded a slight improvement in non-oil vessels traffic and tonnage in
April 2010, while its oil vessels traffic and tonnage dropped. The Suez
Canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, is the third
largest generator of foreign currency in the country, after tourism and
remittances. Recently, the Suez Canal Authority decided to freeze canal
transit tolls for 2010, keeping the freeze that was put in place for
2009. In addition, the Egyptian authorities also offered discounts to
vessels transiting the Suez Canal in an effort to see out the global
economic crisis.
Midway through 2010 the operating environment facing the Egyptian ports
and shipping industry was good, despite political risks. Egyptian
economic growth largely side-stepped the effects of the global recession
in 2009. The pace of growth slowed but did not turn negative. BMI
expected some further slowing in 2010, caused by weakening consumption
and private investment. After 4.7% GDP growth in 2009, we predicted the
pace would ease further to 4.6% in 2010, before picking up again to 4.8%
in 2011. We expected the average growth rate in the period to 2014 to
be 5.1%, clearly marking out the country as a regional out-performer.
The main political risk to this scenario was the vexed issue of the
succession to 82-year-old Hosni Mubarak, in power for almost three
decades. Parliamentary elections were due at the end of this year with
the the presidential contest looming in 2011. BMI believes the
opposition is still too divided to triumph and therefore expects some
form of succession from inside the ruling National Democratic Party
(NPD), but warns of the danger of unrest and disruption, as well as of a
period of uncertainty that could adversely affect the economic climate.
The total volume of goods handled by the Port of Alexandria continued to
grow through the global downturn, although we see the pace of expansion
slowing sharply over our forecast period. Total tonnage rose by 8.7% to
22.096mn tonnes in 2009 and we are predicting a further 5.0% increase
this year, to 23.194mn tonnes. At Port Said (PS), where transhipment
business plays a bigger role, tonnage dropped by 7.1% in 2009, and we
are predicting a further small drop of 0.7% to 8.832mn tonnes in 2010.
Box traffic at both ports is expected to continue growing, but at a low
rate, which will lag behind the expansion of the domestic economy.
The report forecasts exports to remain quite strong over the medium term
thanks to high energy prices and a revival in Suez Canal traffic and
tourism revenues. During 2009, Egyptian trade (imports + exports) fell
by 15.5% in real terms. We predict it will fall by a further 0.9% in
2010 before returning to a growth path with 3.0% expansion in 2011.
Across our five-year forecast period to 2014, foreign trade will grow by
an annual average of 2.9%, trailing GDP. Over the same five years,
exports will grow by an annual average of 3.3% ahead of imports with
growth of 2.6%.
We believe the main downside risk to our ports and shipping forecasts
for Egypt is political and concerns the run-up to the elections next
year. As previously mentioned, the BMI view is that the opposition
remains too divided to win the elections. But the desire for change, the
government’s selective use of repression, potential divisions within
the ruling party over the succession and long-standing allegations of
electoral fraud could all come together to generate protests and
disruption which would have a destabilising effect on the economy.
Source: Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire
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